Tue, Apr 16, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 113 | 117 | 240 |
| PHI | 26 | 112 | 14 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:28PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Brandon Manning, Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 17:21PHIErik GustafssonAssists: Sean Couturier, Matt Read · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 2:54NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: John Moore · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 10:00PHIKimmo TimonenPPGWGAssists: Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 7:28NYRDerek StepanAssists: Ryan Callahan, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 19:46PHIJakub VoracekENAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.70 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:00PHIJay Rosehill: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:36PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:51NYRArron Asham: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:51PHIJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:10PHIScott Hartnell: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:58NYRRyan McDonagh: Interference2 min
- P2 9:42NYRRyane Clowe: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:40PHILuke Schenn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:54PHIScott Hartnell: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Hagelin – Stepan5:41
xG 0.58–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Clowe – Brassard – Zuccarello6:21
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 8–2goals 1–1
- Asham – Pyatt – Powe4:46
xG 0.25–0.10 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Callahan – Stepan7:25
xG 0.50–0.40 (56%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Del Zotto5:35
xG 0.65–0.13 (84%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh10:28
xG 0.70–0.21 (77%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Stralman – McDonagh6:11
xG 0.57–0.10 (85%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHall – Fedotenko – Couturier3:13
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Fedotenko – Rosehill4:03
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gagne – Giroux – Voracek11:39
xG 0.29–0.21 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier10:58
xG 0.30–0.67 (31%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Schenn – Lauridsen14:43
xG 0.60–0.61 (50%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- Timonen – Gustafsson15:34
xG 0.47–0.72 (40%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Foster – Manning10:52
xG 0.26–0.69 (28%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).