Wed, Apr 17, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 011 | 211 | 213 | 435 |
| PIT | 39 | 28 | 112 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:24PITBrandon SutterAssists: Matt Niskanen, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:30PITBrenden MorrowAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Craig Adams · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 19:39PITJarome IginlaPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 4:07PITBrenden MorrowAssists: Beau Bennett, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–4
- P2 7:42MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Brandon Prust, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 10:30PITBrandon SutterPPGWGAssists: Brenden Morrow, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–5
- P2 17:35MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Lars Eller, Travis Moen · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–5
- P3 4:09MTLGabriel DumontAssists: David Desharnais, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 5:24PITDouglas MurrayAssists: Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–6
- P3 19:49MTLAndrei MarkovAssists: David Desharnais, Yannick Weber · Backhand, 0.29 xG4–6
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:36PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:38MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:22MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:25PITTyler Kennedy: Interference2 min
- P2 9:38MTLBrendan Gallagher: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:58PITTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:29MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 7:05MTLP.K. Subban: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:05PITBrenden Morrow: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:05MTLRene Bourque: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:54PITBrenden Morrow: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:54MTLBrandon Prust: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:28MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:28MTLP.K. Subban: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dupuis won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher8:37
xG 0.87–0.13 (87%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bourque4:09
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Halpern – Moen – Dumont3:30
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Dumont2:25
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Drewiske6:26
xG 0.47–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Markov – Weber2:29
xG 0.43–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 1–1
- Bouillon – Markov9:52
xG 0.39–0.05 (88%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Dupuis – Bennett4:56
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Kunitz5:04
xG 0.02–0.06 (27%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale3:15
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Cooke – Glass – Sutter2:21
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Eaton – Despres8:39
xG 0.09–0.20 (31%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Murray – Orpik2:02
xG 0.07–0.18 (27%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Orpik – Letang12:58
xG 0.27–0.47 (37%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).