Wed, Apr 17, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 3, Boston Bruins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 07 | 111 | 05 | 1 | 332 |
| BOS | 112 | 110 | 017 | 04 | 0 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:45BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 18:20BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Tyler Ennis · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 14:48BOSChris KellyAssists: Daniel Paille, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 19:33BUFCody HodgsonPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BOS Tyler Seguin stopped
- 2. BUF Thomas Vanek stopped
- 3. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
- 4. BUF Nathan Gerbe stopped
- 5. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
- 6. BUF Drew Stafford scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:43BUFJochen Hecht: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:53BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:44BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:49BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:57BOSMilan Lucic: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 19:12BOSAndrew Ference: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- OT 4:56BUFMike Weber: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Porter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Hecht – Kaleta – Gerbe9:38
xG 0.19–0.19 (49%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Vanek – Hodgson – Ennis8:22
xG 0.15–0.82 (15%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
- Stafford – Scott – Foligno8:40
xG 0.11–0.82 (12%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- Ott – Porter – Flynn13:07
xG 0.30–1.25 (19%)attempts 7–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sekera – Weber4:14
xG 0.01–0.17 (6%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Sekera15:42
xG 0.40–1.07 (27%)attempts 10–21goals 0–1
- Pardy – Pysyk13:25
xG 0.44–1.14 (28%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin9:38
xG 0.90–0.06 (93%)attempts 18–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Peverley – Lucic7:02
xG 0.71–0.18 (79%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kelly – Paille – Horton7:25
xG 0.34–0.04 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Jagr – Campbell – Krejci13:22
xG 0.57–0.33 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk13:10
xG 1.31–0.28 (82%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Ference – Hamilton11:25
xG 0.90–0.23 (79%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Redden – Seidenberg10:33
xG 0.65–0.13 (84%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).