Thu, Apr 18, 2013·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 1, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 04 | 18 | 07 | 119 |
| OTT | 011 | 216 | 111 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:15OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Milan Michalek, Chris Phillips · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 11:14WSHMike RibeiroAssists: Martin Erat, Jack Hillen · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 13:26OTTCory ConacherGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 18:33OTTKyle TurrisENAssists: Chris Phillips, Colin Greening · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:13WSHMike Ribeiro: Boarding2 min
- P1 6:22WSHMike Green: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:27OTTErik Condra: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 0:59OTTChris Phillips: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:43WSHMike Ribeiro: Interference2 min
- P3 9:03OTTKyle Turris: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Ovechkin – Perreault – Johansson2:58
xG 0.14–0.10 (57%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Beagle – Volpatti6:12
xG 0.03–0.31 (8%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Perreault8:56
xG 0.18–0.47 (27%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson10:04
xG 0.19–0.68 (22%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Erskine – Oleksy2:32
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Green – Hillen3:18
xG 0.08–0.11 (40%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson2:05
xG 0.03–0.19 (13%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGreening – Condra – Pageau10:14
xG 0.71–0.05 (93%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Neil – Latendresse – Smith9:57
xG 0.75–0.15 (83%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Silfverberg – Conacher – Zibanejad9:49
xG 0.56–0.27 (68%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Michalek – Turris10:51
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Wiercioch14:06
xG 0.93–0.07 (93%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Phillips – Methot13:53
xG 0.75–0.08 (91%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Gryba – Cowen13:57
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).