Sat, Apr 20, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 05 | 111 | 28 | 324 |
| BOS | 113 | 015 | 112 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:18BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, Tuukka Rask · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 5:10PITJussi JokinenAssists: Matt Niskanen, Tanner Glass · Backhand, 0.31 xG1–1
- P3 4:43PITJarome IginlaPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Beau Bennett · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 8:29PITKris LetangPPGWGAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 19:57BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 8:11BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:11PITTanner Glass: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 9:31PITMatt Cooke: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:04PITTyler Kennedy: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:56BOSNathan Horton: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:56PITJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:38BOSCarl Soderberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:00PITMatt Niskanen: Interference2 min
- P2 13:20BOSRich Peverley: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:15BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:10PITJussi Jokinen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:14BOSJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:25BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:17BOSMatt Bartkowski: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:02BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:02PITJoe Vitale: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Campbell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Jokinen – Kunitz6:03
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale4:13
xG 0.10–0.04 (73%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Dupuis – Bennett8:26
xG 0.19–0.76 (20%)attempts 1–13goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Sutter9:07
xG 0.17–0.73 (19%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEaton – Engelland11:25
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Engelland – Niskanen2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Murray – Niskanen10:23
xG 0.43–0.69 (38%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin10:27
xG 1.21–0.09 (93%)attempts 25–3goals 0–0
- Paille – Krejci – Peverley2:40
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Peverley2:45
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Paille – Horton – Krejci3:52
xG 0.04–0.23 (13%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Boychuk8:17
xG 0.73–0.05 (94%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Chara – Seidenberg11:29
xG 0.89–0.35 (72%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:46
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).