Fri, Apr 19, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New York Rangers 8, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 313 | 412 | 14 | 829 |
| BUF | 09 | 311 | 18 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:42NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Derek Stepan, Henrik Lundqvist · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 19:39NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 19:56NYRRyane CloweUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–0
- P2 1:13NYRAnton StralmanAssists: Ryane Clowe, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–0
- P2 1:40NYRBrad RichardsGWGAssists: Taylor Pyatt, John Moore · Tip-in, 0.01 xG5–0
- P2 7:05NYRRick NashAssists: Derek Stepan, Steve Eminger · Wrist, 0.03 xG6–0
- P2 13:50BUFCody HodgsonPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Tyler Ennis · Slap, 0.04 xG6–1
- P2 13:56BUFNathan GerbeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–2
- P2 14:28NYRRyan CallahanUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG7–2
- P2 16:19BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Marcus Foligno · Backhand, 0.03 xG7–3
- P3 12:32NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.05 xG8–3
- P3 19:20BUFMark PysykPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Tyler Ennis · Slap, 0.02 xG8–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 12:19NYRRyan McDonagh: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:26NYRArron Asham: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:15NYRDarroll Powe: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 16:50BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:39NYRArron Asham: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Porter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Hagelin – Stepan13:42
xG 0.75–0.36 (67%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Clowe – Nash – Brassard12:47
xG 0.53–0.16 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Richards – Pyatt – Zuccarello13:25
xG 0.37–0.44 (45%)attempts 11–17goals 3–2
- Asham – Powe – Kreider7:16
xG 0.05–0.16 (25%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh20:34
xG 0.75–0.49 (61%)attempts 20–23goals 3–1
- Stralman – Del Zotto15:08
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
- Eminger – Moore11:21
xG 0.15–0.43 (26%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Kaleta – Gerbe8:17
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Stafford – Scott – Foligno9:53
xG 0.22–0.09 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Ott – Porter – Flynn12:14
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 9–5goals 0–2
- Hecht – Stafford – Gerbe2:16
xG 0.10–0.20 (33%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weber – Ruhwedel15:13
xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 11–16goals 2–1
- Ehrhoff – Sekera17:46
xG 0.52–0.62 (46%)attempts 22–13goals 0–5
- Pardy – Pysyk15:56
xG 0.17–0.37 (32%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).