Fri, Apr 19, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Nashville Predators 4, Chicago Blackhawks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 28 | 19 | 110 | 00 | 427 |
| CHI | 215 | 112 | 12 | 11 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:48CHIDuncan KeithPPAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 6:31NSHMatt HalischukAssists: Kevin Klein, Victor Bartley · Slap, 0.49 xG1–1
- P1 10:42NSHKevin HendersonAssists: Chris Mueller, Bobby Butler · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P1 13:36CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 9:20CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Bryan Bickell · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 12:31NSHMatt HalischukAssists: Victor Bartley · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–3
- P3 10:07CHIMichal HandzusUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 16:26NSHBobby ButlerAssists: Matt Halischuk, Shea Weber · Slap, 0.13 xG4–4
- OT 0:52CHIMarian HossaPPGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.11 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:33NSHShea Weber: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:43CHIBrent Seabrook: Interference2 min
- P2 1:33CHIPatrick Kane: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:04CHIViktor Stalberg: Interference2 min
- P3 19:15NSHRich Clune: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Spaling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHenderson – Mueller – Butler7:44
xG 0.62–0.06 (91%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Clune – Halischuk – Smith8:08
xG 0.74–0.50 (60%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Clune – Mueller – Butler2:41
xG 0.04–0.05 (42%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Legwand – Beck – Forsberg7:43
xG 0.39–0.49 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Bartley14:01
xG 1.44–0.96 (60%)attempts 9–18goals 3–2
- Weber – Josi20:14
xG 0.97–0.85 (53%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Klein – Weber2:26
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad12:00
xG 0.74–0.28 (73%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Bolland – Kane – Kruger6:36
xG 0.54–0.20 (72%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Carcillo – Bolland – Kane4:23
xG 0.30–0.47 (39%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Bickell – Stalberg – Shaw9:46
xG 0.05–0.34 (13%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson16:40
xG 0.75–0.50 (60%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Oduya – Brookbank14:37
xG 0.46–0.49 (48%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Seabrook – Leddy14:51
xG 0.83–1.47 (36%)attempts 13–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).