Sat, Apr 20, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
New York Islanders 5, Winnipeg Jets 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 211 | 112 | 16 | 04 | 2 | 533 |
| WPG | 14 | 29 | 112 | 03 | 1 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:21NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Kyle Okposo, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 10:42WPGZach BogosianAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 12:14NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 9:47NYIMatt MartinAssists: Jesse Joensuu, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 10:27WPGKyle WellwoodAssists: Evander Kane, James Wright · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–2
- P2 13:24WPGKyle WellwoodAssists: Grant Clitsome · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 9:13NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Colin McDonald, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 17:59WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Andrew Ladd, Grant Clitsome · Wrist, 0.46 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 2. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 3. WPG Mike Santorelli stopped
- 4. NYI Brad Boyes scored
- 5. WPG Andrew Ladd scored
- 6. NYI John Tavares scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:01WPGGrant Clitsome: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:19WPGEvander Kane: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:46WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:40WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:04NYIJosh Bailey: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:04WPGZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:04NYIKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:12NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:12WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:45NYIMichael Grabner: Concealing puck2 min
- P3 17:52NYILubomir Visnovsky: Interference2 min · PPG
- OT 4:58WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestAucoin – McDonald – Grabner10:00
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares12:35
xG 0.70–0.65 (52%)attempts 11–16goals 0–2
- Joensuu – Martin – Cizikas7:52
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey10:33
xG 0.21–0.54 (28%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey15:18
xG 0.59–0.52 (53%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Streit – Strait12:21
xG 0.63–0.70 (48%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic15:59
xG 0.44–0.58 (43%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Wright – Kane6:42
xG 0.57–0.08 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little15:28
xG 0.64–0.58 (53%)attempts 21–16goals 1–0
- Santorelli – Tangradi – Burmistrov6:45
xG 0.09–0.14 (39%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Postma10:39
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Clitsome – Bogosian12:31
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 2–1
- Hainsey – Byfuglien14:36
xG 0.24–0.78 (23%)attempts 11–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).