Sat, Apr 20, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 119 | 211 | 28 | 538 |
| CAR | 18 | 18 | 113 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:00PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 13:18CARJeff SkinnerUnassisted · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 1:54PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Matt Read · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 7:19CARJustin FaulkAssists: Tim Wallace, Kevin Westgarth · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 8:33PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Sean Couturier, Matt Read · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 0:48PHIWayne SimmondsGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 2:46CAREric StaalAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–3
- P3 7:03PHIMatt ReadAssists: Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:10CARRiley Nash: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:24PHIWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:25CARJeff Skinner: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:44PHIJakub Voracek: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:56CARJiri Tlusty: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:04CARChad LaRose: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 17:34PHIBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGagne – Giroux – Voracek12:01
xG 1.89–0.73 (72%)attempts 17–14goals 1–2
- Brière – Hartnell – Couturier11:19
xG 1.42–0.38 (79%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Schenn – Read11:21
xG 0.93–0.41 (69%)attempts 11–11goals 3–0
- Hall – Fedotenko – Rosehill5:49
xG 0.07–0.11 (40%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFoster – Manning9:50
xG 1.46–0.15 (91%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Timonen – Gustafsson13:11
xG 1.68–0.37 (82%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Schenn – Lauridsen15:02
xG 1.13–0.60 (65%)attempts 17–14goals 1–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestBlanchard – Wallace – Westgarth3:39
xG 0.16–0.06 (72%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- LaRose – Dwyer – Nash8:07
xG 0.38–0.32 (55%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Skinner12:54
xG 0.60–0.77 (44%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty14:23
xG 0.73–2.10 (26%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Bergeron – Faulk2:56
xG 0.07–0.23 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – McBain10:08
xG 0.38–0.57 (40%)attempts 11–5goals 0–2
- Harrison – McBain2:24
xG 0.23–0.58 (29%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).