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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 20, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh

Philadelphia Flyers 5, Carolina Hurricanes 3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 88% of the time.

CAR winsPHI wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:12Shot by Voracek, saved by Peters
  3. P1 0:18Shot by Voracek, saved by Peters
  4. P1 1:02Shot by Read, saved by Peters
  5. P1 1:19Shot by Simmonds, saved by Peters
  6. P1 2:02Shot by Couturier, saved by Peters
  7. P1 4:05Shot by Schenn, saved by Peters
  8. P1 4:09Shot by Gagne, saved by Peters
  9. P1 4:13Shot by Giroux, saved by Peters
  10. P1 4:36Shot by Staal, saved by Mason
  11. P1 4:45Shot by Ruutu, saved by Mason
  12. P1 5:07Shot by Nash, saved by Mason
  13. P1 5:08Shot by LaRose, saved by Mason
  14. P1 5:43Shot by Schenn, saved by Peters
  15. P1 6:43Shot by Manning, saved by Peters
  16. P1 7:00Goal by Voracek (Giroux)+20 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Ruutu, Harrison, Staal, McBain, Skinner · PHI Gagne, Foster, Giroux, Voracek, Manning

  17. P1 8:02Shot by Read, saved by Peters
  18. P1 8:10Nash: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: CAR Gleason, LaRose, Dwyer, Nash, Faulk · PHI Foster, Simmonds, Schenn, Manning, Read

  19. P1 8:18Shot by Giroux, saved by Peters4v5
  20. P1 10:32Shot by Semin, saved by Mason
  21. P1 11:42Shot by Staal, saved by Mason
  22. P1 12:22Shot by Schenn, saved by Peters
  23. P1 12:47Shot by Schenn, saved by Peters
  24. P1 13:18Goal by Skinner, unassisted+20 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Ruutu, Gleason, Staal, Faulk, Skinner · PHI Brière, Hartnell, Schenn, Lauridsen, Couturier

  25. P1 14:45Shot by Hall, saved by Peters
  26. P1 17:21Shot by Couturier, saved by Peters
  27. P1 17:39Shot by Hartnell, saved by Peters
  28. P1 18:18Shot by Skinner, saved by Mason
  29. P1 0:00Period end
  30. P1 0:13Shot by Voracek, saved by Peters
  31. P2 0:00Period start
  32. P2 0:57Shot by Gagne, saved by Peters
  33. P2 1:16Shot by Ruutu, saved by Mason
  34. P2 1:14Shot by Staal, saved by Mason
  35. P2 1:34Shot by Schenn, saved by Peters
  36. P2 1:54Goal by Simmonds (Read)+20 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Bergeron, LaRose, Dwyer, Staal, McBain · PHI Foster, Simmonds, Schenn, Manning, Read

  37. P2 2:19Shot by Brière, saved by Peters
  38. P2 7:19Goal by Faulk (Wallace, Westgarth)+21 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Gleason, Blanchard, Wallace, Westgarth, Faulk · PHI Gagne, Giroux, Voracek, Schenn, Lauridsen

  39. P2 8:33Goal by Simmonds (Couturier, Read)+21 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Corvo, Harrison, Semin, Staal, Tlusty · PHI Timonen, Simmonds, Manning, Read, Couturier

  40. P2 10:42Shot by Nash, saved by Mason
  41. P2 10:50Shot by Gagne, saved by Peters
  42. P2 12:24Simmonds: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: CAR Ruutu, Bergeron, Staal, McBain, Skinner · PHI Simmonds, Schenn, Schenn, Lauridsen, Read

  43. P2 13:05Shot by Faulk, saved by Mason5v4
  44. P2 14:34Shot by Gagne, saved by Peters
  45. P2 14:50Shot by Gagne, saved by Peters
  46. P2 16:10Shot by McBain, saved by Mason
  47. P2 17:25Skinner: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: CAR Corvo, Ruutu, Harrison, Staal, Skinner · PHI Timonen, Simmonds, Schenn, Gustafsson, Read

  48. P2 17:44Voracek: High sticking (2 min)4v5

    On ice: CAR Gleason, Semin, Staal, Faulk · PHI Timonen, Hartnell, Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds

  49. P2 17:49Shot by Faulk, saved by Mason4v4
  50. P2 18:17Shot by Gustafsson, saved by Peters4v4
  51. P2 18:28Shot by Foster, saved by Peters4v4
  52. P2 18:59Shot by Bergeron, saved by Mason4v4
  53. P2 19:29Shot by Fedotenko, saved by Peters5v4
  54. P2 0:00Period end
  55. P3 0:00Period start
  56. P3 0:48Goal by Simmonds (Schenn)+18 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Corvo, Ruutu, Harrison, Staal, Skinner · PHI Simmonds, Schenn, Schenn, Lauridsen, Read

  57. P3 2:15Shot by Staal, saved by Mason
  58. P3 2:45Shot by Tlusty, saved by Mason
  59. P3 2:46Goal by Staal (Tlusty, Semin)+18 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Gleason, Semin, Staal, Tlusty, Faulk · PHI Gagne, Giroux, Voracek, Lauridsen, Manning

  60. P3 3:57Shot by Dwyer, saved by Mason
  61. P3 4:35Shot by Brière, saved by Peters
  62. P3 5:10Shot by Faulk, saved by Mason
  63. P3 6:05Shot by Skinner, saved by Mason
  64. P3 7:03Goal by Read (Simmonds)+17 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Bergeron, Dwyer, McBain, Wallace, Nash · PHI Simmonds, Schenn, Manning, Gustafsson, Read

  65. P3 7:16Shot by Brière, saved by Peters
  66. P3 7:56Tlusty: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: CAR Corvo, Harrison, Semin, Staal, Tlusty · PHI Brière, Hartnell, Schenn, Lauridsen, Couturier

  67. P3 9:30Shot by Brière, saved by Peters4v5
  68. P3 10:04LaRose: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: CAR Bergeron, LaRose, Dwyer, Tlusty, Staal, McBain · PHI Brière, Gagne, Foster, Schenn, Gustafsson

  69. P3 10:20Shot by Timonen, saved by Peters4v5
  70. P3 11:01Shot by Semin, saved by Mason4v5
  71. P3 12:32Shot by Hall, saved by Peters
  72. P3 13:14Shot by Harrison, saved by Mason
  73. P3 13:36Shot by Semin, saved by Mason
  74. P3 14:57Shot by Skinner, saved by Mason
  75. P3 16:49Shot by Brière, saved by Peters
  76. P3 17:34Schenn: Hooking (2 min)6v5

    On ice: CAR Corvo, Bergeron, LaRose, Dwyer, Staal, Nash · PHI Foster, Simmonds, Schenn, Manning, Read

  77. P3 18:15Shot by Bergeron, saved by Mason6v4
  78. P3 19:19Shot by Corvo, saved by Mason6v4
  79. P3 19:35Shot by Ruutu, saved by Mason6v5
  80. P3 0:00Period end
  81. P3 0:00Final