Sun, Apr 21, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
New Jersey Devils 1, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 012 | 19 | 127 |
| NYR | 27 | 110 | 15 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Carl Hagelin, Derek Stepan · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 12:00NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Ryane Clowe, Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 11:56NYRTaylor PyattAssists: Brad Richards · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 5:13NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Brad Richards, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
- P3 13:30NJDAndrei LoktionovAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Peter Harrold · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:44NYRDarroll Powe: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:44NJDRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:44NJDRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:36NYRCarl Hagelin: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:54NJDMatt D'Agostini: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 13:05NJDRyan Carter: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:42NJDMatt D'Agostini: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 2:53NYRRyan Callahan: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:42NJDPatrik Elias: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 15:20NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:25NJD: Game misconduct head coach0 min
- P3 19:43NYRArron Asham: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Clarkson – Zajac8:17
xG 0.66–0.29 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter9:55
xG 0.31–0.10 (75%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – D'Agostini – Henrique4:26
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Kovalchuk – Loktionov6:36
xG 0.49–0.45 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Harrold11:24
xG 0.78–0.30 (72%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Tallinder – Zidlicky14:50
xG 0.81–0.37 (68%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Greene – Larsson14:13
xG 0.48–0.69 (41%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestClowe – Nash – Brassard9:20
xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Pyatt – Zuccarello6:19
xG 0.56–0.49 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Callahan – Hagelin – Stepan12:22
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Asham – Powe – Kreider7:04
xG 0.00–0.50 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – McDonagh14:55
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Girardi – McDonagh2:04
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Eminger – Moore9:11
xG 0.08–0.61 (12%)attempts 1–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).