Mon, Apr 22, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Winnipeg Jets 2, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 015 | 114 | 110 | 239 |
| BUF | 04 | 110 | 011 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:42WPGAaron GagnonAssists: Derek Meech, Dustin Byfuglien · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 11:57BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Drew Stafford · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 12:24WPGAntti MiettinenGWGAssists: James Wright, Mark Stuart · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:18BUFSteve Ott: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:48BUFJohn Scott: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:38WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:34BUFSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:34BUFSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:34WPGAndrew Ladd: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Porter won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestSantorelli – Tangradi – Burmistrov13:30
xG 0.70–0.34 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Wellwood – Wright – Kane7:43
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Miettinen – Thorburn – Gagnon5:18
xG 0.17–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Miettinen – Wright – Kane2:30
xG 0.04–0.18 (17%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMeech – Byfuglien15:30
xG 1.24–0.41 (75%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Stuart – Postma11:17
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Stuart4:11
xG 0.11–0.04 (73%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Hodgson – Ennis14:29
xG 0.45–0.11 (80%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Scott – Foligno6:02
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Ott – Porter – Flynn11:42
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Hecht – Stafford – Grigorenko12:53
xG 0.23–0.91 (21%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pardy – Pysyk17:31
xG 0.49–0.73 (40%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Weber – Ruhwedel13:20
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Sekera18:54
xG 0.66–1.27 (34%)attempts 17–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).