Mon, Apr 22, 2013·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 29 | 06 | 19 | 324 |
| OTT | 014 | 011 | 110 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:15PITDustin JeffreyAssists: Brenden Morrow, Pascal Dupuis · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 10:28PITJarome IginlaGWGAssists: Brenden Morrow, Dustin Jeffrey · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P3 7:18OTTPatrick WierciochPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Daniel Alfredsson · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 17:26PITTyler KennedyAssists: Matt Cooke · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
Penalties (22)
- P1 2:01OTTEric Gryba: Interference2 min
- P1 7:42PITJussi Jokinen: Holding2 min
- P1 13:40PITTyler Kennedy: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:18PITRobert Bortuzzo: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:18OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:53OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:53PITRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:53OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:53PITBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:53PITSteve MacIntyre: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:53PITSteve MacIntyre: Misconduct10 min
- P2 6:24PITMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:31PITCraig Adams: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:31OTTChris Neil: Charging2 min
- P2 10:31PITCraig Adams: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:19OTTChris Phillips: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:54OTTMilan Michalek: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:15OTTChris Phillips: Holding2 min
- P2 19:15PITTanner Glass: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:16OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:13PITBrenden Morrow: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:57OTTMilan Michalek: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Kennedy – Sutter3:58
xG 0.19–0.00 (99%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Morrow – Dupuis – Jeffrey8:04
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Kunitz4:40
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Cooke – Glass – Sutter2:20
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Engelland6:58
xG 0.28–0.12 (71%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Orpik – Despres3:02
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Murray – Niskanen8:27
xG 0.30–0.46 (39%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Michalek – Turris2:59
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Neil – Latendresse – Smith3:15
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Turris – Silfverberg – Conacher2:21
xG 0.06–0.01 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Conacher – Zibanejad4:30
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Methot5:31
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Methot – Gryba6:21
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Wiercioch7:43
xG 0.25–0.28 (48%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).