Mon, Apr 22, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Phoenix Coyotes 0, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 012 | 010 | 012 | 034 |
| DET | 24 | 112 | 17 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37DETJohan FranzenPPGWGAssists: Damien Brunner, Henrik Zetterberg · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 19:24DETDamien BrunnerPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 16:09DETValtteri FilppulaPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 18:38DETJohan FranzenENAssists: Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.64 xG0–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:53PHXAntoine Vermette: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 7:46DETBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:31DETBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:50PHXDavid Moss: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:56DETDaniel Cleary: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:12DETDaniel Cleary: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:14PHXRostislav Klesla: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:53PHXAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:17PHXShane Doan: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:17PHXShane Doan: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:17DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Andersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Vermette – Korpikoski6:23
xG 0.72–0.08 (90%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Doan – Vrbata – Hanzal5:03
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Moss – Gordon – Klinkhammer9:58
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Bolduc – Chipchura – Conner4:46
xG 0.02–0.25 (6%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Klesla11:18
xG 0.82–0.45 (65%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson12:37
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Morris – Ekman-Larsson2:26
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAndersson – Nyquist – Brunner8:31
xG 0.71–0.17 (81%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader11:12
xG 0.60–0.46 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Cleary – Filppula – Abdelkader2:07
xG 0.12–0.01 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Eaves – Emmerton3:54
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – DeKeyser11:51
xG 0.75–0.31 (71%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson12:01
xG 0.78–0.80 (50%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith14:39
xG 0.42–0.64 (40%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).