Tue, Apr 23, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Rangers 2, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 011 | 217 | 238 |
| FLA | 02 | 16 | 28 | 316 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:04FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Filip Kuba, Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P3 2:35NYRTaylor PyattAssists: John Moore, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1
- P3 7:37FLAMarcel GocPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Brian Campbell · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 18:37FLADrew ShoreENGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–3
- P3 19:27NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Brad Richards, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:15NYRArron Asham: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:15FLAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:49NYRRyan Callahan: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:28FLAScott Timmins: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:40FLAAlexander Petrovic: Interference2 min
- P3 6:43NYRBrad Richards: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:48FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Pyatt – Zuccarello12:58
xG 0.71–0.22 (76%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Callahan – Hagelin – Stepan6:19
xG 0.42–0.05 (89%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Clowe – Nash – Brassard5:49
xG 0.07–0.03 (67%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Clowe – Callahan – Brassard6:17
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – Moore8:13
xG 0.61–0.11 (85%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh12:20
xG 0.38–0.09 (82%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Stralman – Del Zotto7:37
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestParros – Skille – Timmins3:37
xG 0.34–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Goc – Fleischmann – Huberdeau13:14
xG 0.10–0.25 (28%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Kopecky – Mueller – Bjugstad9:37
xG 0.06–0.27 (17%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Upshall – Matthias – Shore11:35
xG 0.24–0.62 (28%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kuba – Weaver13:15
xG 0.35–0.33 (51%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Campbell – Petrovic18:15
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- Brennan – Robak9:55
xG 0.21–0.56 (27%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).