Tue, Apr 23, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 1, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 13 | 07 | 118 |
| STL | 116 | 211 | 07 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:19STLChris StewartPPAssists: Jordan Leopold, Andy McDonald · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 2:55STLPatrik BerglundPPGWGAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Jordan Leopold · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 5:13STLAndy McDonaldAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Chris Stewart · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 15:13COLCody McLeodAssists: Paul Stastny, Greg Zanon · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:18COLJamie McGinn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:56COLShane O'Brien: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00COLCody McLeod: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 2:46COLJohn Mitchell: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:39STLPatrik Berglund: Interference2 min
- P3 3:06COLGreg Zanon: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:45STLRoman Polak: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:38STLAndy McDonald: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sobotka won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Kobasew – Stastny – McGinn5:48
xG 0.29–0.27 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Bordeleau – Palushaj – Vincour4:38
xG 0.04–0.24 (14%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Stastny – McGinn – Vincour3:51
xG 0.03–0.23 (10%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- McLeod – O'Reilly – Landeskog10:32
xG 0.05–0.26 (18%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- O'Brien – Hunwick11:56
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Elliott2:23
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hejda – Elliott9:53
xG 0.04–0.26 (12%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Schwartz11:00
xG 0.45–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Porter – Cracknell – Reaves4:00
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Porter – Berglund – Tarasenko2:11
xG 0.23–0.07 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Cracknell – Reaves – Perron2:52
xG 0.18–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo12:22
xG 1.00–0.20 (83%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Jackman – Polak9:59
xG 0.61–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Leopold – Pietrangelo2:15
xG 0.38–0.03 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).