Tue, Apr 23, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 3, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 16 | 13 | 318 |
| NSH | 110 | 111 | 211 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:59CGYTJ BrodieAssists: Paul Byron, Mark Cundari · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 14:39NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Shea Weber, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–1
- P2 7:06CGYRoman CervenkaAssists: Sven Baertschi, Chris Butler · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 18:31NSHNick SpalingPPAssists: Shea Weber, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 3:17NSHAustin WatsonAssists: Craig Smith, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 4:40NSHMatt HalischukGWGAssists: Bobby Butler, Chris Mueller · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 15:10CGYRoman CervenkaAssists: Chris Butler, Sven Baertschi · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:30NSHRich Clune: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:30CGYAkim Aliu: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:57CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:00CGYAkim Aliu: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:19NSHRich Clune: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:19CGYBrian McGrattan: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:28CGYMark Cundari: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mueller won the faceoff against Byron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Hanowski – Street10:31
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Hudler – Aliu – Horak10:01
xG 0.18–0.56 (24%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Byron – Bancks8:06
xG 0.05–0.45 (10%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Baertschi – Cervenka9:30
xG 0.23–0.72 (24%)attempts 8–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Brodie – Cundari15:04
xG 0.51–0.91 (36%)attempts 16–11goals 0–2
- Babchuk – Butler15:12
xG 0.21–0.65 (25%)attempts 7–16goals 2–0
- Wideman – Giordano16:43
xG 0.18–0.95 (16%)attempts 6–25goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHalischuk – Mueller – Butler9:53
xG 0.88–0.27 (77%)attempts 17–5goals 1–1
- Kostitsyn – Spaling – Bang10:44
xG 0.66–0.17 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Legwand – Henderson – Forsberg10:11
xG 0.59–0.36 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Clune – Smith – Watson10:32
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi14:50
xG 0.90–0.22 (81%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Klein – Bartley17:30
xG 1.01–0.47 (68%)attempts 21–9goals 1–2
- Gill – Blum12:06
xG 0.78–0.28 (74%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).