Thu, Apr 25, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Anaheim Ducks 3, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 011 | 214 | 15 | 330 |
| VAN | 05 | 04 | 120 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:44ANAMatt BeleskeyPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Kyle Palmieri · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 8:21ANABrad StaubitzGWGAssists: David Steckel, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P3 16:42VANJason GarrisonPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:32ANAAndrew CoglianoENAssists: Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.53 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:43VANAlexandre Burrows: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:01ANAAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:49VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:40VANMason Raymond: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:35ANABen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:22ANASheldon Souray: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Cogliano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Maroon – Palmieri11:05
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Winnik – Cogliano – Smith-Pelly11:33
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Steckel – Staubitz – Etem7:25
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Lombardi – Perry – Beleskey10:58
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Beauchemin15:25
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler16:44
xG 0.56–0.71 (44%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Souray – Vatanen12:43
xG 0.31–0.50 (39%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Kesler – Raymond4:22
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Higgins – Hansen3:22
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows7:39
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Kassian5:08
xG 0.06–0.04 (59%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Garrison12:04
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Alberts – Joslin6:36
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Alberts – Garrison2:18
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).