Sat, Apr 27, 2013·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 15 | 010 | 110 | 225 |
| OTT | 014 | 115 | 015 | 144 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46PHIJason AkesonAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 4:35OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Colin Greening, Chris Phillips · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 10:02PHIJakub VoracekGWGAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Steve Mason · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:07PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:05PHIDaniel Brière: Interference2 min
- P2 2:28PHIJay Rosehill: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:48OTTErik Condra: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:30OTTMilan Michalek: Interference2 min
- P2 17:51PHIScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:13OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
- P3 1:13PHIJay Rosehill: Misconduct10 min
- P3 1:13PHIOliver Lauridsen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 1:13OTTMatt Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:27PHIJakub Voracek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Read5:49
xG 0.50–0.26 (65%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Rosehill – Simmonds – Schenn2:18
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Knuble – Read – Couturier4:10
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Akeson9:53
xG 0.78–0.69 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Lauridsen10:54
xG 0.71–0.44 (62%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Konan – Manning13:18
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Schenn – Konan2:27
xG 0.06–0.05 (51%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Greening – Turris9:43
xG 0.76–0.35 (68%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Condra – Conacher – Pageau7:36
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Michalek – Silfverberg – Zibanejad8:10
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Michalek – Turris2:48
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Gryba10:31
xG 0.74–0.59 (55%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Phillips – Karlsson2:18
xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Cowen14:07
xG 0.50–0.59 (46%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).