Sat, Apr 27, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
New Jersey Devils 0, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 08 | 05 | 07 | 020 |
| NYR | 29 | 17 | 15 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Ryan Callahan, John Moore · Slap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 19:01NYRRyan CallahanSHAssists: Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–2
- P2 17:23NYRRick NashAssists: Brad Richards · Snap, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 5:30NYRRick NashAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:36NYRCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:19NJDRyan Carter: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:43NYRTaylor Pyatt: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:52NYRDarroll Powe: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:56NJDAdam Henrique: Holding2 min
- P2 8:30NJDTravis Zajac: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:44NYRRyan McDonagh: Interference2 min
- P3 6:29NJDDainius Zubrus: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:35NJDAndy Greene: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:56NJDPeter Harrold: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Josefson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Elias – Clarkson – Zajac9:54
xG 0.17–0.38 (31%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter10:06
xG 0.21–0.46 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Sullivan – Kovalchuk – Henrique7:27
xG 0.22–0.49 (30%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Zubrus – Ponikarovsky – Josefson11:00
xG 0.40–0.77 (34%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Harrold9:47
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Zidlicky3:36
xG 0.10–0.01 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson2:49
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Nash – Zuccarello8:09
xG 1.04–0.12 (89%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Callahan – Hagelin – Stepan9:32
xG 0.56–0.04 (93%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Asham – Newbury – Powe7:25
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Brassard – Kreider12:02
xG 0.09–0.41 (18%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – Moore12:34
xG 0.95–0.26 (79%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Stralman – McDonagh12:03
xG 0.73–0.41 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Girardi – Del Zotto13:17
xG 0.42–0.32 (56%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).