Sat, Apr 27, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Detroit Red Wings 3, Dallas Stars 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 118 | 08 | 211 | 337 |
| DAL | 09 | 04 | 04 | 017 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:17DETHenrik ZetterbergGWGAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 1:57DETHenrik ZetterbergSHAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 6:30DETJonathan EricssonAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
Penalties (10)
- P2 9:44DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
- P2 10:10DALErik Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 11:37DETBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:01DALRyan Garbutt: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:01DALRyan Garbutt: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:00DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00DETBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00DETBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:27DALRyan Garbutt: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:21DALReilly Smith: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader10:19
xG 0.92–0.40 (70%)attempts 19–10goals 2–0
- Cleary – Filppula – Franzen12:15
xG 0.54–0.12 (82%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Andersson – Nyquist – Brunner9:28
xG 0.44–0.15 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Eaves – Emmerton5:55
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson12:03
xG 1.46–0.33 (81%)attempts 22–13goals 2–0
- Kindl – DeKeyser11:14
xG 1.12–0.29 (80%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith12:54
xG 0.65–0.10 (87%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestWandell – Roussel – MacDermid3:55
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Eakin – Garbutt5:17
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Wandell – Smith – MacDermid2:18
xG 0.01–0.35 (3%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Whitney – Eriksson – Benn11:54
xG 0.33–0.71 (32%)attempts 11–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Robidas – Rome12:50
xG 0.37–0.77 (32%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Dillon14:36
xG 0.40–1.04 (28%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
- Larsen – Benn13:27
xG 0.13–1.27 (10%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).