Sat, Apr 27, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 2, Edmonton Oilers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 08 | 113 | 230 |
| EDM | 07 | 110 | 620 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:16VANDerek RoyPPAssists: Jannik Hansen, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 18:40EDMJordan EberleAssists: Justin Schultz, Nick Schultz · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 2:21EDMNail YakupovPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–2
- P3 3:41VANTom SestitoAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–2
- P3 13:17EDMJustin SchultzGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Mark Fistric · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 14:16EDMNail YakupovAssists: Magnus Paajarvi · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 14:37EDMJordan EberleAssists: Taylor Hall, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 15:47EDMNail YakupovAssists: Mark Fistric, Magnus Paajarvi · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–6
- P3 16:52EDMJerred SmithsonAssists: Ryan Jones, Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–7
Penalties (14)
- P1 15:41EDMTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:07VANKevin Bieksa: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:20EDMRyan Smyth: Holding2 min
- P2 18:12EDMLadislav Smid: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:12EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:12VANKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:12VANKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:23VANJannik Hansen: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:39VANMason Raymond: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:27VANKeith Ballard: Holding2 min
- P3 17:48VANMaxim Lapierre: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:48VANSteven Pinizzotto: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:48EDMMark Fistric: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:48EDMMark Fistric: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Higgins – Kesler5:51
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Roy – Pinizzotto – Weise2:36
xG 0.15–0.09 (64%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Sestito – Ebbett – Kassian11:06
xG 0.65–0.70 (48%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Lapierre – Hansen – Raymond6:58
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Joslin11:17
xG 1.10–0.73 (60%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Ballard – Barker9:21
xG 0.31–0.10 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Alberts – Ballard2:01
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Paajarvi – Yakupov3:29
xG 0.49–0.03 (95%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Gagner – Eberle – Hall5:14
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 9–5goals 3–0
- Gagner – Eberle – Paajarvi6:40
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Smyth – Smithson – Brown8:57
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPotter – Fistric9:05
xG 0.58–0.23 (72%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Fistric – Schultz7:18
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Schultz – Schultz7:42
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).