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Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 1, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Montréal Canadiens 3

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

4

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.

MTL winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR11621319438
MTL217010110337

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:01TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
  2. P1 10:08MTLLars EllerAssists: Raphael Diaz, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P1 13:54MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Lars Eller, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P2 8:36TORDion PhaneufAssists: Nazem Kadri, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
  5. P2 17:19TORTyler BozakSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
  6. P3 5:10TORMason RaymondGWGAssists: Troy Bodie · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
  7. P3 17:38MTLLars EllerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
Penalties (26)
  1. P1 6:23MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:18MTLTomas Plekanec: High sticking double minor4 min
  3. P1 10:03TORDion Phaneuf: Boarding2 min
  4. P1 14:19TORJames van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
  5. P2 0:46MTLDaniel Brière: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P2 4:25MTLGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 4:25TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 9:14MTLMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 11:43MTLDaniel Brière: Holding2 min
  10. P2 12:58TORNazem Kadri: Cross checking2 min
  11. P2 12:58MTLAndrei Markov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  12. P2 14:05TORDave Bolland: Holding2 min
  13. P2 17:10TORMark Fraser: Interference2 min
  14. P2 17:10TORMark Fraser: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  15. P2 17:10TORMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
  16. P2 17:10MTLTravis Moen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  17. P2 17:10MTLTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
  18. P3 2:34MTLJarred Tinordi: Fighting5 min
  19. P3 2:34TORCarter Ashton: Fighting5 min
  20. P3 2:34TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  21. P3 2:34TORColton Orr: Game misconduct10 min
  22. P3 2:34MTLGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
  23. P3 2:34MTLGeorge Parros: Game misconduct10 min
  24. P3 15:38MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  25. P3 15:38TORMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
  26. P3 15:38MTLBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
48% to win52% to win
← TOR attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Plekanec
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORMTL
38Shots on goal37
3.7Expected goals3.1
61Shot attempts70
29Faceoffs won26
7Power plays4
47Penalty minutes53
25Hits21
17Blocked shots15
5Giveaways10
3Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Forward lines

  1. bestBodie – Bolland – Raymond5:06

    xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0

  2. Lupul – Kulemin – Kadri8:47

    xG 0.09–0.08 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0

  3. Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak10:44

    xG 0.37–1.38 (21%)attempts 13–21goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestRanger – Franson2:44

    xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0

  2. Ranger – Gunnarsson3:00

    xG 0.08–0.09 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

  3. Franson – Gardiner8:18

    xG 0.32–0.37 (47%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0

Montréal Canadiens

Forward lines

  1. bestGionta – Plekanec – Bourque9:44

    xG 0.70–0.26 (73%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0

  2. Eller – Gallagher – Galchenyuk7:39

    xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1

  3. Brière – Desharnais – Pacioretty8:03

    xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0

  4. Parros – Moen – Prust2:08

    xG 0.04–0.15 (21%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGorges – Subban12:54

    xG 1.19–0.27 (81%)attempts 23–10goals 1–0

  2. Markov – Diaz9:31

    xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0

  3. Bouillon – Subban2:45

    xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 3.1 xGTOR 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 58/100 · #466 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.58 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.

MTL winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).