Wed, Oct 2, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 19 | 27 | 325 |
| PHI | 115 | 07 | 010 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:53PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 17:06TORPhil KesselAssists: Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–1
- P3 2:30TORDave BollandGWGAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 19:37TORDave BollandPPAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:51TORColton Orr: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:12TORJoffrey Lupul: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:12PHIBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:18TORPaul Ranger: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:43TORJames van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:18TORPaul Ranger: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:01PHIKimmo Timonen: Interference2 min
- P2 14:37TORDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:56TORPaul Ranger: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 3:35TORMark Fraser: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:35PHIJay Rosehill: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:35TORColton Orr: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:33TORNikolay Kulemin: Interference2 min
- P3 19:02PHIKimmo Timonen: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Kadri2:07
xG 0.54–0.09 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Lupul – Bolland – Kulemin6:28
xG 0.19–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Orr – McClement – Ashton5:12
xG 0.02–0.01 (62%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bodie – Raymond – Kadri3:22
xG 0.01–0.10 (7%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fraser – Gardiner9:20
xG 0.11–0.10 (51%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson13:01
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- Ranger – Franson12:53
xG 0.32–0.94 (25%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Simmonds – Read9:07
xG 0.82–0.27 (75%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Talbot – Voracek – Couturier4:21
xG 0.15–0.04 (78%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek2:26
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Hall – Rosehill – Rinaldo3:21
xG 0.07–0.07 (51%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn12:26
xG 1.05–0.26 (80%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Streit – Meszaros5:35
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Grossmann – Schenn3:32
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).