Thu, Oct 3, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 015 | 18 | 010 | 133 |
| BOS | 16 | 19 | 110 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:39BOSChris KellyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.32 xG0–1
- P2 10:32TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Eric Brewer, Alex Killorn · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 19:00BOSMilan LucicGWGAssists: David Krejci · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 4:02BOSPatrice BergeronSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:32TBLMatt Carle: Interference2 min
- P1 10:12BOSReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:39TBLMark Barberio: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 18:04BOSAdam McQuaid: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:04BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:04TBLPierre-Cedric Labrie: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:11BOSGregory Campbell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:06BOSJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:06TBLRadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:03BOSShawn Thornton: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:06BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
- P3 3:38TBLRyan Malone: Interference2 min
- P3 19:37TBLRadko Gudas: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Purcell – Killorn7:54
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos12:19
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Johnson – Panik – Palat9:40
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Crombeen – Thompson – Labrie5:55
xG 0.37–0.41 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Barberio10:18
xG 0.24–0.13 (64%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Carle – Barberio3:09
xG 0.22–0.13 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brewer – Sustr3:19
xG 0.01–0.01 (56%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Caron – Smith8:39
xG 0.69–0.38 (64%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic10:52
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Marchand13:07
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:18
xG 0.12–0.45 (22%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk14:59
xG 0.68–0.23 (75%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Hamilton15:17
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid2:15
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).