Thu, Oct 3, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Florida Panthers 4, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 112 | 012 | 315 | 439 |
| DAL | 09 | 110 | 18 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:41FLAScott GomezAssists: Scottie Upshall, Brian Campbell · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 7:25DALAlex ChiassonAssists: Ray Whitney, Brenden Dillon · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–1
- P3 7:32DALBrenden DillonSHAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Antoine Roussel · Snap, 0.38 xG1–2
- P3 10:32FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Tom Gilbert, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–2
- P3 15:05FLAMarcel GocGWGAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Brian Campbell · Snap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 18:30FLAMarcel GocENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.58 xG4–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 8:59FLADrew Shore: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:20DALRyan Garbutt: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:20FLAMike Weaver: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:20DALAntoine Roussel: Instigator2 min
- P1 11:20DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:20DALAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
- P1 11:20FLADmitry Kulikov: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:20FLADmitry Kulikov: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 11:20DALRyan Garbutt: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 17:54DALErik Cole: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:43FLAKris Versteeg: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:02DALAlex Chiasson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:23FLAMarcel Goc: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:31DALErik Cole: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Matthias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Huberdeau – Barkov11:17
xG 1.33–0.26 (84%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Gomez – Upshall – Shore4:58
xG 0.18–0.29 (38%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Kopecky – Matthias – Winchester10:39
xG 0.07–0.25 (23%)attempts 1–12goals 0–0
- Goc – Fleischmann – Versteeg10:36
xG 0.46–0.71 (39%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Whitney4:32
xG 1.20–0.19 (86%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Weaver – Gudbranson5:05
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Whitney – Gudbranson8:07
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Whitney – Chiasson – Eakin10:23
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 7–10goals 1–2
- Cole – Benn – Seguin12:43
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Nichushkin9:01
xG 0.30–1.14 (21%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Dillon13:36
xG 0.88–0.53 (62%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Gonchar – Goligoski15:47
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Daley – Benn11:46
xG 0.40–1.39 (23%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).