Fri, Oct 4, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Detroit Red Wings 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 010 | 216 | 14 | 338 |
| CAR | 14 | 19 | 011 | 01 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:30CARRadek DvorakAssists: Jeff Skinner, Justin Faulk · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 18:11CARNathan GerbePPAssists: Justin Faulk, Jay Harrison · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 0:42DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 19:43DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Johan Franzen · Snap, 0.26 xG2–2
- OT 3:13DETStephen WeissGWGAssists: Johan Franzen, Niklas Kronwall · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:21CARJeff Skinner: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:46CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:35DETJonathan Ericsson: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:28DETBrendan Smith: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:00CARJustin Faulk: Holding2 min
- P3 10:16DETDaniel Alfredsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSamuelsson – Miller – Emmerton6:17
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Weiss – Franzen9:19
xG 0.36–0.46 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader9:45
xG 0.65–0.82 (44%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Andersson6:37
xG 0.08–0.26 (23%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson11:59
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Ericsson – DeKeyser2:15
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith9:39
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Gerbe – Staal12:42
xG 1.02–0.53 (66%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Nash – Skinner6:43
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty11:29
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Sutter – Bowman – Lindholm4:36
xG 0.02–0.23 (9%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk15:51
xG 1.17–0.80 (59%)attempts 20–22goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Bellemore16:56
xG 0.70–0.40 (64%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Harrison – Murphy11:15
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).