Fri, Oct 4, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Calgary Flames 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 211 | 08 | 211 | 430 |
| CBJ | 214 | 07 | 111 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:27CGYSean MonahanAssists: Lee Stempniak, Sven Baertschi · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–0
- P1 5:57CBJJack JohnsonPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, James Wisniewski · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 7:56CGYTJ GaliardiUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 15:20CBJMarian GaborikAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Blake Comeau · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 12:10CGYJiri HudlerAssists: TJ Galiardi, Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 12:52CGYCurtis GlencrossGWGAssists: David Jones, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–2
- P3 15:47CBJArtem AnisimovAssists: David Savard, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:11CGYShane O'Brien: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:43CGYJoe Colborne: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:20CBJJack Johnson: Clipping2 min
- P2 10:06CGYBen Street: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:07CBJNick Foligno: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:07CGYShane O'Brien: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:50CBJRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:51CBJJack Johnson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Colborne
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Glencross – Colborne8:32
xG 0.30–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Baertschi – Monahan8:26
xG 0.52–0.47 (52%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- McGrattan – Bouma – Street3:35
xG 0.07–0.21 (24%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Hudler – Galiardi – Backlund11:41
xG 0.46–0.88 (34%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Butler9:43
xG 0.65–0.44 (60%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
- Giordano – Brodie15:31
xG 0.69–0.72 (49%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Wideman – Butler3:07
xG 0.03–0.07 (33%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Foligno – Johansen4:29
xG 0.62–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Umberger – Foligno4:01
xG 0.49–0.09 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Letestu – Calvert4:53
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Letestu – Jenner3:46
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Savard14:44
xG 1.11–0.40 (73%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Murray11:12
xG 0.58–0.62 (49%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
- Johnson – Prout16:30
xG 0.37–0.77 (33%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).