Fri, Oct 4, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 17 | 010 | 127 |
| COL | 113 | 112 | 111 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:50COLPA ParenteauAssists: Jamie McGinn, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P2 7:54COLPatrick BordeleauGWGAssists: Nate Guenin, Marc-Andre Cliche · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 14:10NSHPaul GaustadAssists: Mike Fisher, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 18:48COLPA ParenteauENAssists: Paul Stastny, John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–3
Penalties (14)
- P2 0:20COLSteve Downie: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:21COLSteve Downie: Charging2 min
- P2 9:21NSHShea Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:21NSHShea Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:10COLSteve Downie: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:05NSHKevin Klein: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:19NSHMike Fisher: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 3:04COLPA Parenteau: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:18NSHCraig Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:28COLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:28NSHEric Nystrom: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:28NSHEric Nystrom: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:28COLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:53NSHShea Weber: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson6:23
xG 0.56–0.17 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gaustad – Clune6:36
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
- Fisher – Nystrom – Spaling8:51
xG 0.17–0.38 (31%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Cullen – Smith – Bourque8:38
xG 0.05–0.65 (8%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Klein – Bartley12:16
xG 0.17–0.22 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi7:42
xG 0.40–0.60 (40%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Jones10:05
xG 0.26–0.54 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDownie – O'Reilly – Duchene10:00
xG 0.93–0.25 (79%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – MacKinnon6:49
xG 0.52–0.08 (87%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche4:51
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Tanguay – Mitchell – Stastny11:11
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson13:52
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Guenin – Barrie10:28
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Sarich – Benoit14:06
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).