Sat, Oct 5, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Florida Panthers 0, St. Louis Blues 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 06 | 07 | 019 |
| STL | 114 | 414 | 26 | 734 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:58STLBrenden MorrowPPGWGAssists: Derek Roy, Chris Stewart · Backhand, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 12:31STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 15:07STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 16:12STLDerek RoyAssists: Chris Stewart, Brenden Morrow · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 19:03STLAlexander SteenUnassisted · Backhand, 0.32 xG0–5
- P3 2:44STLRyan ReavesAssists: Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–6
- P3 4:09STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz · Snap, 0.14 xG0–7
Penalties (24)
- P1 1:38STLBrenden Morrow: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:35STLChris Stewart: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:16STLVladimir Tarasenko: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:37FLAScott Gomez: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:05FLAShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:03STLBarret Jackman: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:48FLADmitry Kulikov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:03FLAErik Gudbranson: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 4:25STLDerek Roy: Interference2 min
- P3 10:41STLChris Stewart: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:41FLAKrys Barch: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:41STLRyan Reaves: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:41STLRyan Reaves: Elbowing2 min
- P3 10:41STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:41FLAScottie Upshall: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:49STLAlexander Steen: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:28FLARyan Whitney: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:28STLJaden Schwartz: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:28FLAKris Versteeg: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:28FLAErik Gudbranson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:05FLATomas Fleischmann: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 18:05STLVladimir Sobotka: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:05STLDavid Backes: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:05FLAJesse Winchester: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Winchester
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Boyes – Huberdeau – Barkov6:57
xG 0.25–0.30 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
- Gomez – Kopecky – Upshall6:36
xG 0.25–0.29 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Barch – Matthias – Winchester5:35
xG 0.07–0.25 (20%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Goc – Fleischmann – Versteeg6:33
xG 0.12–0.33 (26%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert8:55
xG 0.64–0.44 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Weaver – Whitney3:04
xG 0.05–0.04 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Kulikov2:02
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Roy – Stewart5:31
xG 0.34–0.05 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie8:35
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Sobotka – Reaves4:27
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Berglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz6:58
xG 0.45–0.62 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Polak12:13
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo11:56
xG 0.50–0.25 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Leopold – Shattenkirk12:05
xG 0.50–0.75 (40%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).