Sun, Oct 6, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 05 | 110 | 03 | 118 |
| CAR | 117 | 110 | 07 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:11CARJay HarrisonAssists: Ryan Murphy, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 3:01PHILuke SchennAssists: Kris Newbury · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 8:20CARRadek DvorakGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 9:20PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:14PHIMark Streit: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:52CARJordan Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:08PHINicklas Grossmann: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:57CARAlexander Semin: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:19PHIAndrej Meszaros: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Giroux – Voracek11:02
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Schenn – Couturier11:01
xG 0.50–0.30 (63%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
- Hall – Talbot – Newbury4:55
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Simmonds – Read10:05
xG 0.08–0.81 (9%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn11:10
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Streit – Schenn12:33
xG 0.59–0.44 (57%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Grossmann – Schenn2:32
xG 0.09–0.03 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Nash – Skinner11:40
xG 0.82–0.53 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Staal12:17
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Sutter – Bowman – Lindholm5:26
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty9:21
xG 0.09–0.24 (27%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore14:48
xG 0.85–0.25 (77%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Sekera – Faulk18:05
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 21–10goals 0–1
- Harrison – Murphy9:48
xG 0.31–0.49 (39%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).