Tue, Oct 8, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Phoenix Coyotes 1, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 07 | 117 | 010 | 134 |
| NYI | 26 | 314 | 18 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:49NYIPeter ReginAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 15:07NYIJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Frans Nielsen, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 11:47NYIMatt DonovanPPAssists: Peter Regin, Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 12:30PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Radim Vrbata · Slap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 14:49NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Michael Grabner, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 17:24NYIColin McDonaldAssists: Frans Nielsen, Michael Grabner · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–5
- P3 12:19NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Frans Nielsen, Michael Grabner · Snap, 0.13 xG1–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 13:36PHXDavid Schlemko: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:36PHXAntoine Vermette: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P1 17:09NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:15PHXMike Ribeiro: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:33NYIMatt Donovan: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:11PHXMartin Hanzal: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:11PHXShane Doan: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:11NYIColin McDonald: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:11NYIColin McDonald: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:42PHXMikkel Boedker: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:42NYIFrans Nielsen: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:36PHXMike Ribeiro: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:35PHXShane Doan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestChipchura – Klinkhammer – Brown3:10
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Korpikoski9:51
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Boedker12:11
xG 0.58–0.54 (52%)attempts 14–8goals 1–2
- Vermette – Moss – Lessio6:36
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson14:04
xG 0.49–0.41 (54%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Yandle – Stone14:38
xG 0.78–0.72 (52%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Schlemko – Rundblad12:11
xG 0.59–0.65 (47%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Grabner – Bailey9:16
xG 0.39–0.34 (54%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
- Bouchard – Cizikas – Nelson2:08
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas6:47
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Regin – Nelson7:16
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey13:43
xG 1.34–0.34 (80%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic15:05
xG 0.56–0.74 (43%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
- Strait – Donovan13:19
xG 0.56–0.78 (42%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).