Wed, Oct 9, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Ottawa Senators 3, Los Angeles Kings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 17 | 210 | 00 | 325 |
| LAK | 39 | 09 | 013 | 11 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:39LAKDustin BrownUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 12:31LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 17:55LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Jeff Carter, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.25 xG0–3
- P2 6:06OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Erik Condra, Joe Corvo · Slap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 5:58OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Chris Phillips · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 15:33OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Joe Corvo, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 0:28LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Mike Richards, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:30LAKDustin Brown: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:29OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:11OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:50OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min
- P1 17:00OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:22LAKDrew Doughty: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:50LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:56OTTColin Greening: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:56LAKDaniel Carcillo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:56OTTChris Neil: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:01LAKMatt Frattin: Holding2 min
- P3 18:28OTTClarke MacArthur: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Condra – Pageau3:29
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Michalek – Ryan – Da Costa7:08
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Ryan – Condra – Pageau4:49
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith5:59
xG 0.05–0.24 (16%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wiercioch2:24
xG 0.13–0.02 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Cowen11:55
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson18:27
xG 0.26–0.58 (31%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Richards – Carcillo10:55
xG 0.64–0.13 (83%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar12:33
xG 0.26–0.07 (79%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Stoll – King – Nolan9:41
xG 0.31–0.17 (64%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Lewis – Frattin – Clifford9:24
xG 0.09–0.26 (26%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Voynov14:05
xG 0.50–0.24 (67%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Greene – Martinez13:29
xG 0.47–0.32 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Regehr – Doughty17:21
xG 0.42–0.37 (54%)attempts 13–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).