Thu, Oct 10, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
New York Rangers 0, Anaheim Ducks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 03 | 014 | 017 | 034 |
| ANA | 317 | 313 | 07 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:06ANARyan GetzlafGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 9:17ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Teemu Selanne, Mathieu Perreault · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 11:36ANADaniel WinnikAssists: Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 1:27ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Teemu Selanne, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
- P2 8:11ANASaku KoivuAssists: Daniel Winnik, Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–5
- P2 16:15ANADustin PennerAssists: Corey Perry, Bryan Allen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 5:29NYRArron Asham: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:29ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:29NYRArron Asham: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 11:53ANAJakob Silfverberg: Interference2 min
- P1 14:18ANABryan Allen: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:18NYRDerek Dorsett: Instigator2 min
- P1 14:18NYRDerek Dorsett: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:18NYRDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:18NYRDerek Dorsett: Misconduct10 min
- P2 11:13NYRDominic Moore: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:02ANABryan Allen: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:21NYRMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:17NYRDominic Moore: Holding2 min
- P3 14:17NYRDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:17ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Callahan – Stepan5:53
xG 0.66–0.10 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Boyle – Pouliot – Fast3:12
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Boyle – Brassard – Zuccarello7:17
xG 0.32–0.07 (81%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Asham – Moore – Dorsett4:52
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Moore12:21
xG 1.58–0.73 (68%)attempts 16–15goals 0–3
- Stralman – McDonagh14:36
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Staal – Girardi15:29
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Penner6:57
xG 0.40–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 2–0
- Selanne – Perreault – Silfverberg6:53
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
- Koivu – Cogliano – Etem2:36
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Maroon3:12
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Vatanen11:32
xG 0.62–0.22 (74%)attempts 8–6goals 5–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm13:42
xG 0.27–0.44 (39%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler14:13
xG 0.70–0.95 (43%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).