Fri, Oct 11, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Florida Panthers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 219 | 19 | 011 | 339 |
| FLA | 213 | 29 | 28 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:55FLABrad BoyesAssists: Tomas Fleischmann · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 5:38PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Beau Bennett · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 9:10FLAKris VersteegAssists: Scott Gomez, Shawn Matthias · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 16:49PITCraig AdamsAssists: Tanner Glass, Joe Vitale · Tip-in, 0.26 xG2–2
- P2 7:08FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Kris Versteeg, Tomas Fleischmann · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P2 8:14FLAAleksander BarkovPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P2 12:13PITPascal DupuisAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 6:27FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Brad Boyes · Tip-in, 0.23 xG3–5
- P3 19:26FLABrad BoyesAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Tomas Fleischmann · Snap, 0.06 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:33FLAMatt Gilroy: Holding2 min
- P1 6:35PITChris Kunitz: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:19FLAShawn Matthias: Interference2 min
- P1 12:15FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:15PITBrooks Orpik: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:53FLATom Gilbert: Interference2 min
- P2 6:08PITPaul Martin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:34PITJoe Vitale: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:25PITSidney Crosby: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Glass – Vitale4:16
xG 1.13–0.12 (90%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Malkin – Bennett6:51
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Kobasew – Sutter – Jeffrey3:54
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Sutter – Bennett2:42
xG 0.08–0.14 (35%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Maatta9:33
xG 1.39–0.07 (95%)attempts 14–1goals 1–1
- Scuderi – Niskanen14:12
xG 0.59–0.44 (58%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Niskanen – Maatta2:29
xG 0.08–0.02 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarch – Matthias – Winchester6:21
xG 0.23–0.05 (81%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Boyes – Fleischmann – Barkov11:41
xG 0.66–0.83 (44%)attempts 12–13goals 3–0
- Gomez – Versteeg – Huberdeau9:12
xG 0.39–0.71 (35%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Kopecky – Goc – Upshall10:01
xG 0.32–0.79 (29%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilroy – Gudbranson14:13
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Campbell – Gilbert16:02
xG 1.00–0.81 (55%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Weaver – Kulikov13:26
xG 0.25–1.84 (12%)attempts 5–23goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).