Fri, Oct 11, 2013·United Center, Chicago
New York Islanders 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 27 | 06 | 06 | 219 |
| CHI | 213 | 18 | 07 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:32CHIJoakim NordstromAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 16:05CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P1 19:06NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Michael Grabner · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 19:55NYIKyle OkposoAssists: John Tavares · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 6:45CHIMichal HandzusGWGAssists: Duncan Keith, Ben Smith · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P2 9:25CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:01NYIKyle Okposo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:40NYIMatt Donovan: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:02NYITravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:10CHIAndrew Shaw: Interference2 min
- P3 12:16CHIMichal Handzus: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:16NYIMatt Moulson: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:57NYIPeter Regin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Okposo – Tavares13:31
xG 0.54–0.34 (61%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas8:34
xG 0.02–0.29 (8%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Grabner – Bailey9:30
xG 0.30–0.77 (28%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Bouchard – Regin – Clutterbuck8:14
xG 0.03–0.67 (4%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Visnovsky – Hickey14:58
xG 0.18–0.67 (22%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
- Strait – Donovan11:09
xG 0.17–0.93 (16%)attempts 3–13goals 1–2
- MacDonald – Hamonic15:32
xG 0.11–0.87 (11%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Smith – Bollig3:56
xG 0.51–0.03 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Toews – Kane – Saad6:40
xG 0.29–0.07 (80%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Shaw10:14
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Saad2:24
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook15:51
xG 1.28–0.27 (83%)attempts 20–9goals 2–1
- Rozsival – Leddy12:50
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson16:36
xG 1.01–0.65 (61%)attempts 23–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).