Sat, Oct 12, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 115 | 110 | 234 |
| DET | 110 | 110 | 310 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13DETTodd BertuzziPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Niklas Kronwall · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 11:08DETNiklas KronwallPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 11:42PHIErik GustafssonAssists: Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 3:08DETPavel DatsyukPPGWGAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Daniel Alfredsson · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 5:46PHITye McGinnAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 13:48DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 19:07DETHenrik ZetterbergENAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Daniel Cleary · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:42DETDanny DeKeyser: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:49PHIMichael Raffl: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:29PHITye McGinn: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:35PHIBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min
- P2 3:19DETLuke Glendening: Holding2 min
- P2 9:10PHILuke Schenn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:52DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:37PHIWayne Simmonds: Holding2 min
- P3 2:37PHIBraydon Coburn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:00DETStephen Weiss: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:41PHIKris Newbury: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Raffl10:30
xG 0.91–0.16 (85%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Talbot – Read – Couturier9:17
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – McGinn10:21
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Gustafsson8:59
xG 0.70–0.05 (93%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Streit – Schenn9:31
xG 0.41–0.06 (88%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Coburn – Grossmann12:04
xG 0.64–0.57 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Zetterberg10:00
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Cleary – Andersson7:08
xG 0.22–0.28 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Miller – Glendening3:31
xG 0.02–0.24 (7%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Weiss – Franzen – Abdelkader10:57
xG 0.08–1.02 (7%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson14:52
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Quincey – DeKeyser14:18
xG 0.24–0.77 (24%)attempts 8–23goals 1–1
- Kindl – Lashoff7:15
xG 0.19–0.84 (18%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).