Sat, Oct 12, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Colorado Avalanche 5, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 212 | 17 | 29 | 528 |
| WSH | 010 | 019 | 112 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:42COLAlex TanguayAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 14:22COLMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Andre Benoit · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 17:41COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Gabriel Landeskog · Snap, 0.16 xG3–0
- P3 1:19COLAlex TanguaySHAssists: Paul Stastny, Andre Benoit · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–0
- P3 2:03WSHEric FehrAssists: Jason Chimera, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 2:24COLJamie McGinnAssists: PA Parenteau, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:17WSHMike Green: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:04WSHTom Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 19:31COLErik Johnson: Holding2 min
- P3 7:24COLCory Sarich: Interference2 min
- P3 11:19WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDownie – O'Reilly – Duchene14:19
xG 0.87–0.74 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Tanguay – Stastny – Landeskog11:22
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Bordeleau – McLeod4:47
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Mitchell – McGinn2:05
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Wilson3:05
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson15:42
xG 0.83–0.61 (58%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Sarich – Benoit12:47
xG 0.26–0.74 (26%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Fehr13:09
xG 1.00–0.10 (91%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson11:03
xG 0.79–0.30 (72%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Erat – Beagle – Wilson6:42
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Laich – Grabovski – Brouwer10:21
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Alzner15:51
xG 0.58–0.12 (83%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Carlson – Urbom14:15
xG 1.12–0.75 (60%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Oleksy – Schmidt13:06
xG 0.77–0.51 (60%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).