Sat, Oct 12, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 1, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 16 | 06 | 119 |
| MIN | 212 | 213 | 111 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:12MINJustin FontaineAssists: Matt Cooke · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 10:41MINMatt CookeGWGUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 8:23MINMathew DumbaPPAssists: Dany Heatley, Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 10:20MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–4
- P2 12:40DALJordie BennPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alex Chiasson · Snap, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 14:30MINZach ParisePPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.51 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:52MINDany Heatley: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:42MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:46DALAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min
- P2 7:19DALBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:02MINRyan Suter: Delaying game smothering puck2 min · PPG
- P3 0:35DALShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:02DALAlex Chiasson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Garbutt – Nichushkin7:47
xG 0.15–0.07 (69%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Peverley – Benn – Seguin9:39
xG 0.09–0.26 (26%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
- Whitney – Chiasson – Eakin10:15
xG 0.07–0.48 (12%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Cole – Horcoff – Roussel11:14
xG 0.20–0.90 (19%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Robidas – Dillon10:26
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Daley – Benn16:59
xG 0.33–0.39 (45%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Robidas – Goligoski4:16
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Niederreiter12:13
xG 0.94–0.16 (85%)attempts 23–3goals 1–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Fontaine12:45
xG 0.43–0.10 (80%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Heatley – Pominville – Granlund11:17
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Veilleux – Konopka – Mitchell7:05
xG 0.01–0.17 (7%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Dumba12:49
xG 0.76–0.22 (77%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin17:06
xG 0.79–0.43 (65%)attempts 16–16goals 2–0
- Ballard – Spurgeon14:00
xG 0.37–0.06 (85%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).