Sat, Oct 12, 2013·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Ottawa Senators 2, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 28 | 010 | 05 | 223 |
| SJS | 112 | 114 | 124 | 350 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:55SJSTomas HertlAssists: Dan Boyle, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 15:21OTTZack SmithAssists: Chris Phillips, Colin Greening · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 18:31OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Patrick Wiercioch · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 16:12SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 7:08SJSBrent BurnsGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Matt Nieto · Slap, 0.24 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:41SJSMatt Pelech: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:41OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:58SJSAndrew Desjardins: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:17SJSJames Sheppard: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:28SJSTyler Kennedy: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:28OTTCory Conacher: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:10OTTMilan Michalek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:56OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Interference2 min
- P3 5:07OTTJason Spezza: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:50OTTRobin Lehner: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 16:08SJSJoe Pavelski: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Condra – Pageau5:21
xG 0.10–0.01 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Greening – Condra – Pageau2:33
xG 0.07–0.02 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Ryan11:37
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Greening – Smith – Da Costa6:33
xG 0.06–0.43 (13%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Phillips – Gryba9:50
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 12–3goals 1–1
- Methot – Karlsson17:45
xG 0.19–0.54 (26%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
- Phillips – Karlsson2:35
xG 0.00–0.43 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Sheppard – Wingels3:10
xG 0.43–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kennedy – Couture9:29
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Pelech – Desjardins – Sheppard2:53
xG 0.03–0.06 (30%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Wingels – Nieto6:30
xG 0.06–0.13 (31%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun12:01
xG 0.44–0.23 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Hannan – Demers9:09
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Boyle – Irwin8:47
xG 0.08–0.10 (44%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).