Mon, Oct 14, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Minnesota Wild 2, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 16 | 18 | 06 | 220 |
| BUF | 05 | 112 | 06 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:23MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Matt Cooke, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 15:04BUFBrian FlynnAssists: Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1
- P2 19:50MINJason PominvillePPGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:40MINMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
- P1 11:27BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:27MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:13MINDany Heatley: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:31MINZach Parise: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:51BUFDrew Stafford: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:10MINClayton Stoner: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:58BUFHenrik Tallinder: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:56BUFThomas Vanek: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Niederreiter12:07
xG 0.42–0.12 (77%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Heatley – Pominville – Granlund10:21
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Veilleux – Konopka – Mitchell5:01
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Fontaine8:53
xG 0.08–0.37 (18%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBallard – Spurgeon9:12
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba2:02
xG 0.04–0.02 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stoner – Dumba9:25
xG 0.09–0.27 (24%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestFlynn – Girgensons – Grigorenko7:31
xG 0.62–0.05 (93%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- McCormick – Porter – Larsson3:44
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno11:28
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Ott – Vanek – Hodgson11:42
xG 0.29–0.48 (38%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – McBain10:49
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Myers12:29
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Pysyk14:03
xG 0.33–0.42 (44%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).