Tue, Oct 15, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Minnesota Wild 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 117 | 06 | 014 | 137 |
| TOR | 23 | 14 | 17 | 414 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:24TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Dave Bolland, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:51TORTrevor SmithGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 17:27MINJason PominvillePPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise · Snap, 0.38 xG1–2
- P2 12:23TORMason RaymondPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 19:01TORMason RaymondENAssists: Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:47TORJake Gardiner: Holding2 min
- P1 3:04MINDany Heatley: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 7:30TORPaul Ranger: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:29TORDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:10TORMason Raymond: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:42MINNino Niederreiter: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:41TORCody Franson: Interference2 min
- P2 13:41MINNino Niederreiter: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:51TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:09MINZenon Konopka: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Pominville – Parise3:57
xG 0.51–0.07 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Niederreiter9:31
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Heatley – Pominville – Granlund6:33
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Mitchell2:35
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Spurgeon8:53
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin18:11
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Scandella – Prosser11:45
xG 0.15–0.07 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Bolland – Leivo9:56
xG 0.36–0.13 (74%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kadri – Broll7:20
xG 0.15–0.15 (49%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Orr – Smith – Ashton5:05
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak2:19
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRanger – Gardiner13:19
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
- Franson – Rielly11:29
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson11:43
xG 0.08–0.72 (10%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).