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Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 15, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Buffalo Sabres 4, New York Islanders 3 (SO)

Away

Buffalo Sabres

4

Final

Shootout

Home

New York Islanders

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.

NYI winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BUF01121318022434
NYI116116110021344

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:11NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Josh Bailey, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P2 5:24BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Drew Stafford, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
  3. P2 8:08NYIMatt MartinAssists: Casey Cizikas, Eric Boulton · Snap, 0.25 xG1–2
  4. P2 9:19BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Cody Hodgson, Christian Ehrhoff · Tip-in, 0.22 xG2–2
  5. P3 8:44NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: John Tavares, Lubomir Visnovsky · Slap, 0.09 xG2–3
  6. P3 17:59BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. NYI Matt Moulson scored
  2. 2. BUF Thomas Vanek scored
  3. 3. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
  4. 4. BUF Tyler Ennis scored
  5. 5. NYI John Tavares stopped
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 1:13NYIThomas Hickey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P1 3:31BUFMike Weber: Interference2 min
  3. P1 5:47NYIJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P2 8:21NYIJohn Tavares: High sticking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 16:13NYIEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 16:13BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 16:50BUFJohn Scott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  8. P2 16:50NYIMatt Carkner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  9. P3 5:10NYIKyle Okposo: Boarding2 min
  10. P3 7:47BUFSteve Ott: Holding2 min · PPG
  11. P3 7:47BUFSteve Ott: Holding2 min
  12. P3 7:47NYIKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 9:21BUFHenrik Tallinder: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
48% to win52% to win
← BUF attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Hodgson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFNYI
34Shots on goal44
4.3Expected goals5.2
66Shot attempts78
33Faceoffs won35
4Power plays3
15Penalty minutes17
32Hits25
18Blocked shots16
6Giveaways13
8Takeaways13

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Buffalo Sabres

Forward lines

  1. bestStafford – Ennis – Foligno10:12

    xG 1.07–0.35 (76%)attempts 19–8goals 2–0

  2. Larsson – Flynn – Girgensons2:30

    xG 0.58–0.13 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0

  3. Porter – Larsson – Flynn4:07

    xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  4. Ott – Larsson – Flynn3:00

    xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestEhrhoff – Pysyk13:47

    xG 1.49–0.97 (61%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1

  2. Weber – Ristolainen8:56

    xG 0.21–0.47 (31%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0

  3. Tallinder – Myers15:11

    xG 0.53–1.05 (34%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0

New York Islanders

Forward lines

  1. bestBoulton – Martin – Cizikas3:12

    xG 0.53–0.19 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0

  2. Nielsen – Bouchard – Bailey13:49

    xG 0.98–0.72 (57%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0

  3. Moulson – Okposo – Tavares2:25

    xG 0.21–0.09 (71%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0

  4. Okposo – Grabner – Tavares10:17

    xG 1.05–0.98 (52%)attempts 17–15goals 0–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestMacDonald – Hamonic15:56

    xG 1.77–0.68 (72%)attempts 22–11goals 2–1

  2. Visnovsky – Hamonic2:10

    xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0

  3. Carkner – Strait10:38

    xG 0.69–0.61 (53%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 5.2 xGBUF 4.3 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYIBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 89/100 · #97 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.46 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 8% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +44 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.

NYI winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).