Tue, Oct 15, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Detroit Red Wings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 018 | 18 | 011 | 137 |
| DET | 17 | 113 | 012 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:05DETDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 7:48CBJCam AtkinsonPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–1
- P2 11:14DETHenrik ZetterbergPPGWGAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.27 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:03CBJJared Boll: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:33DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P1 12:50CBJRyan Johansen: Holding2 min
- P1 19:16DETBrian Lashoff: Interference2 min
- P2 6:45DETJohan Franzen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:20CBJDerek MacKenzie: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:11CBJMarian Gaborik: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Craig – Boll5:57
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Letestu – Jenner9:28
xG 0.13–0.04 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Dubinsky – Atkinson11:37
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Umberger – Comeau – Johansen10:43
xG 0.16–0.27 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Murray12:47
xG 0.73–0.28 (72%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson12:04
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Nikitin – Savard15:41
xG 0.23–0.42 (36%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Datsyuk – Zetterberg9:50
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Cleary – Andersson10:09
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Weiss – Franzen – Abdelkader14:31
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Miller – Glendening6:19
xG 0.17–0.34 (33%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser13:10
xG 0.26–0.14 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Ericsson – DeKeyser2:21
xG 0.01–0.04 (21%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kindl – Lashoff14:54
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).