Tue, Oct 15, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Dallas Stars 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 16 | 118 | 017 | 241 |
| COL | 210 | 15 | 011 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:18DALRich PeverleyAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 11:43COLMatt DucheneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 19:53COLJan HejdaAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, PA Parenteau · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 10:58DALCody EakinPPAssists: Ray Whitney, Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 14:18COLMatt DucheneGWGAssists: PA Parenteau, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:55DALBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:12DALTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P2 1:42COLErik Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:59COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:30COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:09DALShawn Horcoff: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:09COLSemyon Varlamov: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:19COLErik Johnson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Horcoff – Roussel9:09
xG 1.46–0.57 (72%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Whitney – Chiasson – Eakin10:18
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Fiddler – MacDermid – Garbutt3:22
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Peverley – Benn – Seguin13:28
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Goligoski14:36
xG 0.99–0.55 (64%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
- Robidas – Dillon12:17
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Daley – Benn13:23
xG 0.35–0.94 (27%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – McGinn – MacKinnon10:11
xG 0.91–0.26 (78%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Downie – O'Reilly – Duchene12:08
xG 0.30–0.37 (45%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Bordeleau – McLeod4:33
xG 0.02–0.31 (6%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Stastny – Landeskog13:51
xG 0.50–1.47 (25%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson14:27
xG 0.65–0.27 (71%)attempts 17–10goals 2–1
- Guenin – Wilson10:15
xG 0.60–0.37 (62%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Sarich – Benoit12:55
xG 0.42–1.02 (29%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).