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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 19, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo

Colorado Avalanche 4, Buffalo Sabres 2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.

BUF winsCOL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:19Shot by O'Reilly, saved by Miller
  3. P1 0:23Shot by Downie, saved by Miller
  4. P1 0:52Shot by Benoit, saved by Miller
  5. P1 3:07Shot by Cliche, saved by Miller
  6. P1 3:17Shot by O'Reilly, saved by Miller
  7. P1 3:32Shot by Downie, saved by Miller
  8. P1 3:45Myers: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Tallinder, Ott, Myers, Ennis, Foligno · COL Tanguay, Guenin, Stastny, Wilson, Landeskog

  9. P1 4:06Shot by Parenteau, saved by Miller4v5
  10. P1 7:52Shot by McGinn, saved by Miller
  11. P1 8:44Goal by O'Reilly (Duchene, Downie)+14 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Ott, Ehrhoff, Ennis, Foligno, Pysyk · COL Guenin, Downie, Wilson, O'Reilly, Duchene

  12. P1 10:57Shot by Mitchell, saved by Miller
  13. P1 11:57Goal by Landeskog (Johnson)+15 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Vanek, Stafford, Weber, McBain, Hodgson · COL Tanguay, Hejda, Stastny, Johnson, Landeskog

  14. P1 13:10Shot by O'Reilly, saved by Miller
  15. P1 14:09Shot by Stafford, saved by Giguere
  16. P1 15:58Shot by Tanguay, saved by Miller
  17. P1 16:47Downie: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Ehrhoff, Vanek, Stafford, Hodgson, Pysyk · COL Sarich, Benoit, Downie, O'Reilly, Duchene

  18. P1 17:06Shot by Ehrhoff, saved by Giguere5v4
  19. P1 17:24Shot by Ehrhoff, saved by Giguere5v4
  20. P1 19:58Shot by Hejda, saved by Miller5v6
  21. P1 0:00Larsson: Slashing (2 min)5v6

    On ice: BUF Ehrhoff, Vanek, McBain, Larsson, Flynn · COL Tanguay, Hejda, Stastny, Johnson, Duchene, Landeskog

  22. P1 0:00Period end
  23. P2 0:00Period start
  24. P2 0:55Shot by Duchene, saved by Miller4v5
  25. P2 0:56Goal by Duchene (O'Reilly, Benoit)4v5+9 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Ott, Ehrhoff, Stafford, Pysyk · COL Tanguay, Benoit, Downie, O'Reilly, Duchene

  26. P2 1:52Shot by Ennis, saved by Giguere
  27. P2 3:15Shot by Stafford, saved by Giguere
  28. P2 3:47Shot by Tallinder, saved by Giguere
  29. P2 4:12Shot by Weber, saved by Giguere
  30. P2 4:57Shot by Ott, saved by Giguere
  31. P2 5:31Goal by Hodgson (Stafford, Vanek)+9 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Ehrhoff, Vanek, Stafford, Hodgson, Pysyk · COL Parenteau, Hejda, Johnson, O'Reilly, Duchene

  32. P2 5:42Shot by Parenteau, saved by Miller
  33. P2 8:34Goal by Stastny (Landeskog, Wilson)+9 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Ott, Ehrhoff, Ennis, Foligno, Pysyk · COL Tanguay, Guenin, Stastny, Wilson, Landeskog

  34. P2 9:12Shot by Stafford, saved by Giguere
  35. P2 9:18Shot by Flynn, saved by Giguere
  36. P2 11:12Tanguay: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Ehrhoff, Vanek, McBain, Hodgson, Ennis · COL Sarich, Tanguay, Guenin, O'Reilly, Duchene

  37. P2 11:48Shot by Ennis, saved by Giguere5v4
  38. P2 13:09Shot by Stafford, saved by Giguere5v4
  39. P2 13:07Shot by Ott, saved by Giguere5v4
  40. P2 14:21Shot by O'Reilly, saved by Miller
  41. P2 15:29Shot by Benoit, saved by Miller
  42. P2 17:51Shot by Hejda, saved by Miller
  43. P2 18:21Shot by Mitchell, saved by Miller
  44. P2 0:00Period end
  45. P3 0:00Period start
  46. P3 0:29Shot by Duchene, saved by Miller
  47. P3 0:50Shot by Ott, saved by Giguere
  48. P3 1:05Goal by Foligno (Tallinder, Myers)+7 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Tallinder, Ott, Myers, Ennis, Foligno · COL Sarich, Tanguay, Benoit, Stastny, Landeskog

  49. P3 1:03Shot by Tallinder, saved by Giguere
  50. P3 2:08Shot by Stafford, saved by Giguere
  51. P3 2:31Shot by Downie, saved by Miller
  52. P3 3:59Shot by Foligno, saved by Giguere
  53. P3 4:43Shot by Ennis, saved by Giguere
  54. P3 5:20Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Miller
  55. P3 6:26Shot by Larsson, saved by Giguere
  56. P3 6:48Weber: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Weber, Myers, Larsson, Flynn, Girgensons · COL Guenin, Downie, Wilson, O'Reilly, Duchene

  57. P3 6:48Downie: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: BUF Weber, Myers, Larsson, Flynn, Girgensons · COL Guenin, Downie, Wilson, O'Reilly, Duchene

  58. P3 6:48Weber: Fighting (5 min)5v4

    On ice: BUF Weber, Myers, Larsson, Flynn, Girgensons · COL Guenin, Downie, Wilson, O'Reilly, Duchene

  59. P3 6:48Downie: Misconduct (10 min)4v4

    On ice: BUF Weber, Myers, Larsson, Flynn, Girgensons · COL Guenin, Downie, Wilson, O'Reilly, Duchene

  60. P3 9:19Shot by Mitchell, saved by Miller
  61. P3 11:04Shot by Vanek, saved by Giguere
  62. P3 12:13Shot by Ehrhoff, saved by Giguere
  63. P3 14:31Shot by Ennis, saved by Giguere
  64. P3 14:35Shot by Ennis, saved by Giguere
  65. P3 14:39Shot by Myers, saved by Giguere
  66. P3 14:44Shot by Myers, saved by Giguere
  67. P3 17:25Shot by Foligno, saved by Giguere
  68. P3 17:32Stastny: Holding (2 min)6v5

    On ice: BUF Ott, Ehrhoff, Vanek, Ennis, Foligno, Pysyk · COL Sarich, Tanguay, Benoit, Stastny, Landeskog

  69. P3 18:24Shot by Vanek, saved by Giguere6v4
  70. P3 19:23Shot by Flynn, saved by Giguere6v4
  71. P3 0:00Period end
  72. P3 0:00Final