Sat, Oct 19, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 011 | 015 | 112 | 138 |
| WSH | 014 | 211 | 214 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:58WSHJoel WardPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 7:43WSHBrooks LaichGWGAssists: Steve Oleksy, Martin Erat · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 4:20WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 6:34WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Green, Martin Erat · Slap, 0.05 xG0–4
- P3 15:05CBJArtem AnisimovAssists: Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:08WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:26CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:27CBJRyan Murray: Holding2 min
- P2 13:53WSHTroy Brouwer: Interference2 min
- P3 5:59CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:13WSHNate Schmidt: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:52CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:52WSHSteve Oleksy: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:52CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laich won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Anisimov – Atkinson11:12
xG 0.91–0.13 (87%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Skille – Boll6:54
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Umberger – Comeau – Johansen11:21
xG 0.64–0.77 (46%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Letestu – Jenner13:28
xG 0.30–0.56 (34%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Murray16:15
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Savard15:15
xG 0.86–0.51 (63%)attempts 20–17goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Johnson14:04
xG 0.57–0.93 (38%)attempts 14–20goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestErat – Laich – Brouwer12:48
xG 0.99–0.26 (79%)attempts 19–8goals 2–0
- Fehr – Volpatti – Wilson6:11
xG 0.08–0.19 (31%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson12:50
xG 0.33–0.57 (37%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Grabovski8:09
xG 0.13–0.65 (17%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Green – Schmidt19:47
xG 0.81–0.78 (51%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Urbom – Oleksy12:31
xG 0.48–0.65 (43%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson14:21
xG 0.25–0.64 (28%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).