Sat, Oct 19, 2013·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 3, San Jose Sharks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 98% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 15 | 26 | 319 |
| SJS | 213 | 217 | 26 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brad Stuart · Snap, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 19:07SJSScott HannanAssists: Joe Thornton, Tomas Hertl · Slap, 0.30 xG0–2
- P2 3:01CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Sven Baertschi, Kris Russell · Slap, 0.31 xG1–2
- P2 8:57SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Matt Irwin · Deflected, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 17:59SJSPatrick MarleauPPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.32 xG1–4
- P3 1:33CGYMikael BacklundSHAssists: Lee Stempniak, Dennis Wideman · Slap, 0.23 xG2–4
- P3 3:56CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 9:38SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Logan Couture, Jason Demers · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 18:38SJSLogan CoutureENAssists: Tommy Wingels, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Snap, 0.54 xG3–6
Penalties (18)
- P1 4:21CGYTJ Brodie: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P1 9:54SJSJames Sheppard: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:29CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:25CGYCurtis Glencross: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:39SJSJoe Pavelski: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:19SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:15SJSTommy Wingels: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:15SJSTommy Wingels: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:30CGYLee Stempniak: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:50CGYTim Jackman: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 12:52CGYMikael Backlund: Interference2 min
- P2 16:59CGYShane O'Brien: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:08CGYLance Bouma: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:24SJSScott Hannan: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:56CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:23CGYLee Stempniak: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:36CGYTJ Galiardi: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:36SJSMatt Irwin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Baertschi – Monahan8:28
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Glencross – Colborne2:03
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Galiardi – Colborne – Bouma5:23
xG 0.13–0.33 (28%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- McGrattan – Jackman – Street2:33
xG 0.00–0.42 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- O'Brien – Butler6:42
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Butler – Brodie2:12
xG 0.03–0.14 (16%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell9:23
xG 0.15–0.92 (14%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Wingels – Nieto5:02
xG 0.74–0.06 (92%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Pelech – Desjardins – Sheppard2:57
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kennedy – Couture8:12
xG 0.05–0.08 (40%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Wingels – Nieto2:08
xG 0.00–0.07 (1%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun9:43
xG 0.87–0.08 (91%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Hannan – Stuart6:38
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Stuart – Irwin2:38
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 98% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).