Wed, Oct 23, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 17 | 214 | 213 | 534 |
| BUF | 06 | 28 | 02 | 216 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:01BOSMilan LucicAssists: Jarome Iginla, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 0:40BOSMilan LucicAssists: Jarome Iginla · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 8:21BUFCody HodgsonPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Marcus Foligno · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 11:50BOSDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 15:10BUFNikita ZadorovAssists: Steve Ott, Marcus Foligno · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 4:17BOSTorey KrugAssists: Reilly Smith, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 9:42BOSTorey KrugPPAssists: David Krejci, Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.05 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 12:42BOSCarl Soderberg: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 1:58BUFHenrik Tallinder: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:01BUFKevin Porter: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:20BOSDavid Krejci: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:38BOSShawn Thornton: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 2:22BUFJohan Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:22BOSChris Kelly: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:49BUFJohn Scott: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P3 5:49BOSAdam McQuaid: Instigator2 min
- P3 5:49BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:49BUFJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:49BOSAdam McQuaid: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Foligno won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Krejci – Lucic10:07
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Smith9:12
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille8:23
xG 0.07–0.03 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kelly – Soderberg – Marchand8:15
xG 0.17–0.26 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk12:25
xG 0.72–0.14 (83%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Chara – Hamilton2:41
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Hamilton11:42
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLarsson – Flynn – Girgensons10:17
xG 0.26–0.09 (73%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Porter – Scott – Grigorenko4:06
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stafford – Porter – Grigorenko2:22
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Ott – Ennis – Foligno10:40
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Ehrhoff – Myers2:11
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Weber – Zadorov14:13
xG 0.16–0.24 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Ehrhoff – Pysyk10:57
xG 0.23–0.35 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).