Thu, Oct 24, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Anaheim Ducks 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 015 | 19 | 132 |
| MTL | 210 | 19 | 16 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:39MTLMichael BournivalAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Josh Gorges · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 16:32MTLTomas PlekanecGWGAssists: Michael Bournival · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 11:49MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.45 xG0–3
- P3 8:58ANAPatrick MaroonAssists: Nick Bonino, Devante Smith-Pelly · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 12:39MTLRene BourquePPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Brian Gionta · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:05ANAMathieu Perreault: Holding2 min
- P1 9:26ANAMark Fistric: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:20MTLLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:03MTLMike Blunden: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:03ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:07ANAMathieu Perreault: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:21ANACam Fowler: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:08ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:38MTLLars Eller: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:32MTLRene Bourque: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:47ANANick Bonino: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Perreault – Etem7:56
xG 0.84–0.14 (86%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Selanne – Getzlaf – Winnik7:52
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Bonino – Maroon – Smith-Pelly3:03
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Winnik – Bonino – Smith-Pelly2:56
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFistric – Fowler7:43
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Fowler4:51
xG 0.17–0.05 (77%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Allen – Lindholm2:25
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Gallagher – Galchenyuk10:13
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bournival10:36
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
- Blunden – White – Holland4:25
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Moen – Bourque – Desharnais11:44
xG 0.23–0.86 (21%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Diaz12:10
xG 0.72–0.51 (58%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Bouillon – Gorges3:40
xG 0.03–0.11 (23%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban15:08
xG 0.39–0.59 (40%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).